Expectations For China Color Iron-Ore Talks

对中国经济健康状况互相抵触的观点正在阻碍铁矿石价格谈判。尽管矿业公司承认降价是不可避免的，但争论的焦点却是价格应该降到什么程度。自今年年初以来，中国钢铁企业就一直在与必和必拓(BHP Billiton)力拓(Rio Tinto)以及巴西的淡水河谷(Cia. Vale do Rio Doce)进行价格谈判。鉴于中国是全球最大的铁矿石进口国，价格谈判的结果将会造成全球性影响。铁矿石是炼钢的重要原料。矿业公司认为，由于中国经济已经开始复苏，降价幅度可以小一些。淡水河谷中国区总裁朱凯周二在《金属报导》(Metal Bulletin)于北京举办的远东钢铁会议上说，我们认为中国市场开始显示出明显的复苏迹象。他引用上个月中国制造活动好转铁矿石进口量创下纪录作为例证。不过中国工业与信息化部高级官员贾银松在会上说，需求和外贸都依然低迷。河北钢铁集团副总经理田志平说，低迷的钢价仍是钢铁企业身上的一大重负，并且会一直持续到2009年年底。在全球经济衰退的形势下，钢铁需求下滑，中国港口的铁矿石库存上个月增加到7,000万吨，而通常水平为3,000万吨。今年早些时候，矿业公司曾希望铁矿石价格能与去年持平，不过到2月份时，他们已预计会降价20%。分析师说，现在看起来，降价幅度越来越有可能至少为30%。世界大型钢铁企业韩国的浦项综合制铁公司(Posco)最近表示，价格应该降一半，也就是意味着2009年的价格约为每吨40-45美元。Chuin-Wei Yap相关阅读钢铁生产商有望压低铁矿石采购成本 2009-04-17三大铁矿石巨头退出中国行业大会 2009-04-14淡水河谷否认对华供应铁矿石降价40% 2009-03-28中钢协：国际矿产商同意铁矿石暂时降价40% 2009-03-28中国希望铁矿石价格降至07年水平 2009-03-20 本文涉及股票或公司document.write (truthmeter('2009年04月29日09:42', 'RTP'));力拓股份有限公司英文名称：Rio Tinto PLC (ADS)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：RTPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月29日09:42', 'BHP'));BHP Billiton Ltd. (ADS)总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BHPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月29日09:42', 'RIO'));淡水河谷公司英文名称：Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (ADS)总部地点：巴西(Brazil)上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：RIOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月29日09:42', 'BBL'));Bhp Billiton Plc (ads)总部地点：英国上市地点：纽约证交所股票代码：BBLdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月29日09:42', 'BHP.AU'));Bhp Billiton Ltd.总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码：BHPdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月29日09:42', 'RIO.AU'));Rio Tinto Ltd.总部地点：澳大利亚(Australia)上市地点：澳大利亚证券交易所股票代码：RIOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月29日09:42', 'BLT.LN'));BHP Billiton PLC总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：BLTdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月29日09:42', 'RIO.LN'));力拓股份有限公司英文名称：Rio Tinto Plc总部地点：英国上市地点：伦敦股票代码：RIOdocument.write (truthmeter('2009年04月29日09:42', 'VALE5.BR'));淡水河谷公司英文名称：Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce总部地点：巴西(Brazil)上市地点：圣保罗股票代码：VALE5


Conflicting views of the Chinese economy's health are thwarting negotiations over iron-ore prices.While miners concede a price cut is inevitable, the debate has centered on how low prices should go. Chinese mills have been in price talks since the start of the year with BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Brazil's Cia. Vale do Rio Doce. The outcome will be influential world-wide because China is one of the world's biggest importers of iron ore, an essential ingredient in steel.Miners paint a picture of an already resurgent Chinese economy that would allow for a small price reduction.'We think the Chinese market is showing clear signs of market recovery,' Michael Zhu, president of Vale China, said at the Metal Bulletin Far East Steel conference here Tuesday. He cited improvement in Chinese manufacturing activity and China's record iron-ore import volume last month.But Jia Yinsong, a senior official at the Industry Ministry, said at the conference that demand and foreign trade were 'still grim.'Tian Zhiping, vice president of China's Hebei Iron & Steel Group Co., said depressed steel prices remain 'a heavy burden to mills and will last through 2009.'As demand for steel has dropped in the global recession, iron-ore inventories at Chinese ports rose to 70 million metric tons last month, compared with a typical level of 30 million tons.Miners early this year hoped to keep prices at last year's level, but by February expected a 20% cut. Now it looks increasingly likely that the reduction will be at least 30%, analysts have said.South Korea's Posco, among the world's biggest steelmakers, said recently that prices should be cut by half, which would mean 2009 prices of about $40 to $45 a metric ton.Chuin-Wei Yap