Finance||美联储强调充分就业这一举措可能会引起新的全球趋势。

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The Federal Reserve美联储
New job description新的工作职责
1.The Fed’s move to emphasise full employment could start a global trend美联储强调充分就业这一举措可能会引起新的全球趋势。

2.In 2018, when America’s long recovery from the 2007-09 financial crisis pushed the unemployment rate below 4%, the Federal Reserve had a simple message for American workers: do not get used to it. The central bank’s economic projections revealed that its officials believed 4.5% to be the lowest sustainable jobless rate, to which America would need to return to stop inflation surging upwards. If higher interest rates and slower growth were needed to achieve that, so be it.2018年，当美国从2007-09年的金融危机中的长期复苏将失业率压至低于4%时，美联储向美国工人传达了一个简单的信息：不要习惯于此。中央银行的经济预测揭示，该机构认为4.5%的失业率是最低可持续失业率，美国需要返回到该水平以阻止通胀上升。如果实现此目的需要更高的利率和更缓慢的经济增长，那也只能这样。3.On August 27th Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, acknowledged what common sense suggested two years before: that an intentional increase in unemployment is an odd thing to pursue after nearly 20 years of depressed labour-market conditions. Speaking at an annual central-banking shindig, Mr Powell unveiled the conclusions of a monetary-policy strategy review begun in 2019. The coming changes to Fed policymaking could initiate an important global shift in central-bank practice.8月27日，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）承认了两年前就已成为共识的事情：在经历了近20年低迷的劳动力市场之后，故意增加失业率是一件奇怪的事。鲍威尔在一年一度的中央银行新闻发布会上发表讲话，公布了从2019年开始的货币政策战略审查的结论。美联储即将进行的政策改革可能会引发全球范围内中央银行政策的重大转变。长难句精讲：On August 27th Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, acknowledged what common sense suggested two years before: that an intentional increase in unemployment is an odd thing to pursue after nearly 20 years of depressed labour-market conditions.the Fed chairman是Jerome Powell的同位语，acknowledged后接what引导的宾语从句，what在句中做宾语。8月27日，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）承认了两年前就已得出的共识：在经历了近20年的劳动力市场低迷之后，故意增加失业率是一件奇怪的事情。
4.The Fed’s old framework was forged by the inflationary tumult of the 1970s. Post-war economists understood there to be a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment—known as the Phillips curve—such that policymakers could push unemployment as low as they liked, provided they were prepared to accept more inflation. But soaring prices persuaded many that this relationship did not hold below some minimum sustainable level of unemployment. Attempts to push joblessness lower would yield higher inflation, but at best only a temporary reduction in unemployment. By the 1990s, most central banks had resolved to target a low level of inflation, generally around 2%.美联储旧的政策框架是由1970年代的通货膨胀锻造而成的。战后经济学家认为通货膨胀与失业之间存在负相关关系（称为菲利普斯曲线），因此，只要决策者愿意接受更高的通货膨胀，就可以将失业率推至更低水平。但是，物价飞涨使许多人相信，这种负相关关系并不能使失业率保持在最低可持续水平下。降低失业率的措施会导致较高的通货膨胀率，充其量只是暂时减少失业率。到1990年代，大多数中央银行已决定将通货膨胀率控制在较低水平，通常约为2%。（by  Libby  Leslie  Stella）长难句精讲：Post-war economists understood there to be a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment—known as the Phillips curve—such that policymakers could push unemployment as low as they liked, provided they were prepared to accept more inflation.understood 后的there to be为复合宾语，known as the Phillips curve为插入语，such that引导结果状语从句。此处注意as low as they liked是同级比较的搭配，第一个as为副词，第二个as 为连词。provided 后省略that，引导条件状语从句。战后经济学家认为通货膨胀与失业之间存在负相关关系（即菲利普斯曲线），因此，只要决策者有意接受较高的通货膨胀率，就可以将失业率推到更低的水平。
5.But since the embrace of inflation targeting in the 1990s, the relationship between employment and inflation has weakened. Soaring joblessness during the Great Recession failed to produce the expected plunge in prices. Neither have low levels of unemployment since then ended an era of historically low inflation. Precisely why the relationship between inflation and joblessness changed is uncertain. Some economists reckon central banks’ credibility in managing inflation anchored the public’s expectations too well. Others point to a decline in workers’ bargaining power, which has eased the pressure on firms to raise prices in order to cover the cost of expensive pay packets. Still others point to technological change and globalisation, which expand consumer options and allow firms to respond to increased demand without raising prices. Whatever the cause, the flattening Phillips curve biased monetary policy in an overly hawkish way, eventually prompting the Fed rethink.但自上世纪90年代实行通货膨胀目标制以来，就业与通胀之间的相关关系就已经减弱。大萧条期间失业率飙升，但这未能产生预期的价格暴跌。自那以后，低失业率再也没有能力结束一个历史性的低通胀阶段。通胀和失业之间的关系发生变化的准确原因目前还不确定。一些经济学家认为，各国央行在管理通胀方面的良好信誉使得公众对此给予了过高的期望。另一些人则指出，工人的议价能力下降，这减轻了企业的压力，使得他们不必为支付昂贵的薪酬而提高价格。还有一些人指出，技术变革和全球化扩大了消费者的选择，使得企业能够在不提高价格的情况下应对日益增长的需求。无论出于什么原因，菲利普斯曲线的平缓走向表明如今的货币政策偏于强硬，并最终促使美联储重新思考政策的制定。（by  Charles  Oblivion  Carol）背景知识：菲利浦斯曲线：菲利浦斯曲线是用来表示失业与通货膨胀之间替代取舍关系的曲线，这条曲线表明：当失业率较低时，货币工资增长率较高；反之，当失业率较高时，货币工资增长率较低，甚至是负数。根据成本推动的通货膨胀理论，货币工资可以表示通货膨胀率。因此，这条曲线就可以表示失业率与通货膨胀率之间的交替关系。即失业率高表明经济处于萧条阶段，这时工资与物价水平都较低，从而通货膨胀率也就低；反之失业率低，表明经济处于繁荣阶段，这时工资与物价水平都较高，从而通货膨胀率也就高。失业率和通货膨胀率之间存在着反方向变动的关系。
6.The changes to its framework may seem modest. Because the maximum sustainable level of employment cannot be measured, the Fed will give up worrying about overshooting it and focus only on employment shortfalls. The 2% inflation target remains a constraint, but a more flexible one than before. It should be hit on average, Mr Powell explained, meaning that periods of below-target inflation can be offset by at least some time with inflation above the target as well.其框架的改变似乎不大。因为最高可持续就业水平无法被衡量，因此美联储将不再担心超过这个水平，而只关注就业不足。2%的通胀目标仍然是一个制约因素，但这相比以前更加灵活。鲍威尔解释说，一般来说，通胀率应该会受到冲击，这意味着至少在某些时期，通胀率低于目标值的情况可以被通胀率高于目标值的情况所抵消。
7.But the conceptual change—abandoning the notion of a minimum sustainable unemployment rate—is significant. And the practical effects could be large. Had the Fed enjoyed more freedom in recent years, it could have raised interest rates more gradually, or not at all, enabling a faster and more complete labour-market recovery.但是，放弃最低可持续失业率这一观念转变是十分重要的，并且其现实影响可能很大。如果美联储近年来享有更多的自由，它本可以更和缓地逐步提高利率，或者根本不加息，从而实现更快、更全面的劳动力市场复苏。（by  Stella  Carol   Oblivion）8.Whether policy will change much in practice is as yet unclear. Markets, for their part, appear not to see a radical change of regime in the offing. Market-based measures of inflation expectations are around 1.7%, below the Fed’s 2% target. American stockmarkets, which seem to soar at the gentlest of nudges, have rallied, some hitting record highs in the past week. More important is the reaction in foreign-exchange markets. The greenback has slipped nearly 1% against a basket of major currencies since Mr Powell’s speech, bringing its total decline since May to about 8%. A weakening dollar could indicate that markets see more room for policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks, most notably the European Central Bank, whose mandate does not explicitly require it to minimise joblessness.目前还不清楚政策在实践中是否会有很大改变。就市场而言，它们似乎没有看到即将发生的体制巨变。基于市场的通胀预期指标约为1.7%，低于美联储2%的目标。美国股票市场似乎在温和的推动下回暖，而现在股票价格已经回升，一些数据甚至在过去的一周内达到了历史新高。更重要的是外汇市场的反应。自鲍威尔的讲话以来，美元兑一篮子主要货币下跌了近1%，使其自5月份以来的总跌幅达到8%。美元走低可能表明，市场认为美联储与其它央行(尤其是欧洲央行)之间存在更多政策分歧的空间。欧洲央行并没有将失业率降至最低作为其使命。（by Michael Williammm Leslie）9.Under any circumstances, the macroeconomic developments which led the Fed to revise its strategy would no doubt have influenced other central banks to adjust their own policies. But in weak advanced economies with interest rates close to zero, currency appreciation against the dollar places a drag on spending which cannot easily be offset by further easing. The Fed may thus find that its modest adjustment encourages imitators elsewhere in surprisingly short order.在任何情况下，宏观经济发展会促使美联储调整政策，这无疑也会影响其他央行调整其政策。但在经济疲弱的发达经济体国家，利率已经接近于零，本币对美元升值会影响支出，而进一步放松货币政策无法轻易解决这一问题。因此，美联储可能会发现，它的微调在令人惊讶的短时间内就迅速鼓励了外国的追随者。（by  Williammm Shannen Bricio）

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长难句精讲：Shannen全篇审阅：Carol  Michael
译者鸣谢：Bricio， Michael，Charles，Libby，Williammm，Shannen ，Stella，Carol，Leslie， Oblivion