hcnp三本书_这是我关于人工智能的三本书

hcnp三本书

Several friends asked me what books I have been reading. I have decided to start a new series sharing the top three books I found useful and insightful on each topic that I am interested in.

有几个朋友问我在读什么书。 我决定开始一个新系列，分享我发现对我感兴趣的每个主题有用和有见地的前三本书。

The topic I will explore through books today is artificial intelligence. This is a topic where non-linear change assumptions will be immensely useful. Although our minds are wired to think linearly about the future, we need to learn to think exponentially about the future of technology. Exponential changes are hard to grasp, and our biological minds are not well equipped to deal with such changes. That is why we have a hard time understanding how compounding works over time. It is also the same reason how our minds cannot grasp how Jeff Bezos can be so rich. This TikTok viral video explains the wealth of Bezos through the metaphor of rice:

我今天将通过书本探讨的主题是人工智能。 在这个主题中，非线性变化假设将非常有用。 尽管我们的思维是线性地思考未来，但是我们需要学会以指数方式思考技术的未来。 指数变化很难掌握，我们的生物学思维也不足以应对这种变化。 这就是为什么我们很难理解复合随着时间的推移如何工作的原因。 这也是我们的思想无法掌握Jeff Bezos如何变得如此富有的同样原因。 这段TikTok病毒视频通过大米的隐喻解释了贝索斯的财富：

How does this happen? This is called the power of compounding and it illustrates the power of exponential change. For example, a penny doubling every day for 31 days will become $10,737,418.24. Such is the power of mathematical thinking.

这是怎么发生的？ 这称为复合能力，它说明了指数变化的能力。 例如，每天一分钱翻一番，持续31天将变成$ 10,737,418.24。 这就是数学思维的力量。

The processes of life and nature are not linear — they are non-linear. Creativity is non-linear. Business success is non-linear. Entrepreneurship is non-linear. Engineering innovations are non-linear. I think this also explains why Elon Musk will be the wealthiest person of our times very soon: He is wild in radical learning, experimentation, and innovation. He focuses on the long term and applies moonshot thinking to make radical advances. These are the magical powers of our times.

生活与自然的过程不是线性的，而是非线性的。 创造力是非线性的。 企业成功是非线性的。 创业是非线性的。 工程创新是非线性的。 我认为这也可以解释为什么埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)很快会成为我们这个时代最富有的人：他在激进的学习，实验和创新中疯狂。 他着眼于长期，运用月球思维来取得根本性的进步。 这些是我们时代的神奇力量。

Ray Kurzweil states:

雷·库兹韦尔(Ray Kurzweil)说：

“By the time we get to the 2040s, we’ll be able to multiply human intelligence a billionfold. That will be a profound change that’s singular in nature. Computers are going to keep getting smaller and smaller. Ultimately, they will go inside our bodies and brains and make us healthier, make us smarter.”

“到2040年代，我们将能够将人类的智慧增加十亿倍。 这将是本质上意义重大的深刻变化。 计算机将变得越来越小。 最终，它们将进入我们的身体和大脑，使我们更健康，使我们更聪明。”

“So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate).”

“因此，我们在21世纪将不会经历100年的进步-它将更像是20,000年的进步(以今天的速度计算)。”

Nowadays we witness how technological innovations have accelerated more than ever. I am not a tech person, but even I can see that we are living through historically significant times. Last week I have written about the futuristic implications of the GPT-3 revolution unleashed by OpenAI, and the Neuralink demo unveiled by Elon Musk.

如今，我们见证了技术创新如何比以往更快地加速发展。 我不是技术人员，但即使我也可以看到我们正在经历历史上重要的时期。 上周，我写了关于OpenAI引发的GPT-3革命和Elon Musk揭开的Neuralink演示的未来派影响的文章 。

It looks like we are running towards ‘singularity’. Singularity is the point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible. When the Singularity occurs, non-human intelligent agents (AI powered robots and machines) will continually upgrade themselves and enter never-ending and accelerating self-improvement cycles. Machines will invent new machines that will be more sophisticated and advanced than anything we witness or imagine today.

看来我们正在走向“奇异”。 奇异性是技术增长变得不可控制和不可逆转的时间点。 当发生奇点时，非人类智能代理(由AI驱动的机器人和机器)将不断自我升级，并进入永无止境的加速自我完善周期。 机器将发明比我们今天目睹或想象的任何机器都要先进和先进的新机器。

At this point, technological change will be so rapid and profound that this will represent a rupture in the fabric of human history. It means the end of human civilization as we know it and the beginning of something new. Some call this phenomenon ‘intelligence explosion’. It is the point at which we will experience exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth.

在这一点上，技术变革将是如此Swift和深刻，以至于这将代表人类历史结构的破裂。 这意味着我们所知道的人类文明的终结和新事物的开始。 有人称这种现象为“智能爆炸 ”。 在这一点上，我们将经历指数增长速度的指数增长。

When technology advances far beyond our abilities to predict its outcomes, it is impossible to see what is coming next. In the long term, the implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence. Neuralink has shown us the first glimpse of this. When the symbiosis between humans and AI is complete, there will be no distinction between humans and machines. Our physical reality (the external world) and virtual reality (the simulation, mirror-world, or metaverse) will be indistinguishable from each other. Some experts expect we will turn into software and silicon-based super-humans and super-intelligence will then expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.

当技术的发展远远超出我们预测其结果的能力时，就不可能看到下一步的发展。 从长远来看，其含义包括生物和非生物智能的融合。 Neuralink向我们展示了第一眼。 当人与人工智能之间的共生关系完成时，人与机器之间就不会有任何区别。 我们的物理现实(外部世界)和虚拟现实(模拟，镜像世界或元宇宙)将无法彼此区分。 一些专家预计，我们将变成软件和基于硅的超人，然后超级智能将以光速在宇宙中向外扩展。

Singularity will trigger a technological tsunami, resulting in unfathomable changes and new challenges to human civilization. The three books below explore this alien phenomenon.

奇异性将引发技术海啸，给人类文明带来不可思议的变化和新挑战。 下面的三本书探讨了这种外来现象。

It is interesting that we are only a few decades (or a few generations) away from the singularity phenomenon, yet nobody seems to care. Although this represents the biggest existential risk and opportunity for humanity, singularity does not enter into our attention span or collective consciousness. This ignorance or neglect brings its own perils.

有趣的是，我们离奇异现象只有几十年(或几代人)，但似乎没人在乎。 尽管这代表了人类最大的生存风险和机遇，但奇点不会进入我们的注意力范围或集体意识。 这种无知或疏忽带来了自己的危险。

We need to increase our literacy and depth of understanding of artificial intelligence. Curiosity is our only option to go forward. Curiosity will give us leverage because we can then capitalize on what is novel, interesting, surprising, meaningful, and beautiful. We can then dance our way forward. In any case, we need to keep learning and experimenting with AI technologies.

我们需要提高对人工智能的素养和理解深度。 好奇心是我们前进的唯一选择。 好奇心会给我们带来影响，因为我们可以利用新颖，有趣，令人惊讶，有意义和美丽的事物。 然后我们可以向前跳舞。 无论如何，我们需要继续学习和尝试AI技术。

詹姆斯·巴拉特(James Barrat)的 “ 我们的最终发明：人工智能与人类时代的终结” (“Our Final Invention: Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era” by James Barrat)

Source 来源

Until now, human intelligence has had no rival. What will happen when artificial intelligence matches and surpasses human intelligence? Corporations and governments around the world are pouring billions into achieving the holy grail of artificial intelligence: human-level intelligence. Once AI attains it, we might be forced to compete with a very cunning, powerful, and alien rival. James Barrat explores the perils of this prospect and how we are not really equipped for this. Barrat warns how difficult it would be to control or predict the actions of something that might become super-intelligent. Artificial general intelligence can transform itself continuously through recursive self-improvement. Such an intelligence explosion might pose serious threats to human existence. Elon Musk named this book as one of five books everyone should read about the future.

到目前为止，人类智能还没有竞争对手。 当人工智能匹配并超越人类智能时，将会发生什么？ 世界各地的公司和政府都在投入数十亿美元来实现人工智能的圣杯：人类水平的智能。 一旦AI实现，我们可能会被迫与一个非常狡猾，强大而陌生的竞争对手竞争。 詹姆斯·巴拉特(James Barrat)探索了这一前景的危险，以及我们如何真正没有能力为此做好准备。 巴拉特警告说，控制或预测可能变得超级智能的物体的动作将有多么困难。 人工智能可以通过递归自我完善来不断地自我改变。 这样的情报爆炸可能会严重威胁人类的生存。 埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)将此书命名为每个人都应该阅读的有关未来的五本书之一。

Here are some of the key insights and arguments of this book:

这是本书的一些关键见解和论点：

• An intelligence explosion might occur in this century. We have already created machines that are better than humans in many fields. Whenever machines acquire general artificial intelligence, they can improve their own capabilities very quickly and jump to superhuman general intelligence in a matter of days, weeks, or years.
  本世纪可能会发生情报爆炸。 我们已经创造了在许多领域都比人类更好的机器。 每当机器获得通用人工智能时，它们都可以非常快速地提高自身的功能，并在数天，数周或数年之内跃升为超人通用智能。
• Humans control the future not because they are the strongest or fastest but because they are the smartest. Once machines are smarter than we are, they will be controlling the future. It is not possible to constrain a superintelligence indefinitely: That would be like monkeys trying to keep humans in a bamboo cage.
  人类控制未来不是因为他们最强大或最快，而是因为他们最聪明。 一旦机器比我们更智能，它们将控制未来。 无限期地限制超级智能是不可能的：就像猴子试图将人类关在竹笼中一样。

• In AI, intelligence is the ability to efficiently achieve one’s goals in a variety of complex and novel environments. By default, a machine superintelligence will not share out goals but will be super-focused at whatever it is designed to do. Roosevelt suggests, “To educate [someone] in mind and not in morals is to educate a menace to society.”

  在AI中，智能是在各种复杂和新颖的环境中有效实现目标的能力。 默认情况下，机器超级智能不会共享目标，而是将超级专注于设计要做什么。 罗斯福建议：“ 教育思想上的人，而不是道德上的人，是对社会的威胁。 ”

• Superintelligent machines are dangerous to humans not because they will angrily rebel against humans. The real problem: For any set of goals they have, it will be instrumentally useful for machines to use our resources to achieve those goals. As Yudkowsky puts it, “The AI does not love you, nor does it hate you, but you are made of atoms it can use for something else.”

  超级智能机器对人类是危险的，而不是因为它们会反抗人类。 真正的问题：对于它们具有的任何目标集，对于机器使用我们的资源来实现这些目标而言，将大有帮助。 正如尤德科夫斯基(Yudkowsky)所说：“ 人工智能既不爱你，也不讨厌你，但你是由原子构成的，它可以用于其他用途 。”

• Humans' values are very complex. We do not just care about pleasure or happiness. Rather, our brains are built with thousands of desires. Any goal to “maximize human pleasure” is simplistic and dangerous. If we try to hand-code the values of AI, we will probably miss something that we did not realize we cared about.
  人类的价值观非常复杂。 我们不仅在乎快乐或幸福。 相反，我们的大脑是建立在成千上万的欲望中的。 “最大化人类愉悦度”的任何目标都是简单而危险的。 如果我们尝试手工编码AI的值，我们可能会错过一些我们没有意识到自己关心的东西。

Some of the striking quotes in the book are the following:

这本书中一些引人注目的引述如下：

“A powerful AI system tasked with ensuring your safety might imprison you at home. If you asked for happiness, it might hook you up to a life support and ceaselessly stimulate your brain’s pleasure centers. If you don’t provide the AI with a very big library of preferred behaviors or an ironclad means for it to deduce what behavior you prefer, you’ll be stuck with whatever it comes up with. And since it’s a highly complex system, you may never understand it well enough to make sure you’ve got it right.” — James Barrat

“一个功能强大的AI系统，负责确保您的安全，可能会在家中关押您。 如果您要求幸福，它可能会使您获得生命支持，并不断刺激大脑的愉悦中心。 如果您没有为AI提供一个庞大的首选行为库，或者没有为它推断出您喜欢哪种行为的坚决手段，那么您将无所适从。 而且由于它是一个非常复杂的系统，所以您可能永远无法完全理解它，以确保您安装正确。” —詹姆斯·巴拉特(James Barrat)

“The AI does not hate you, nor does it love you, but you are made out of atoms which it can use for something else. — Eliezer Yudkowsky

“ AI既不恨您，也不爱您，但您是由原子构成的，可以用于其他用途。 —埃利泽·尤德科斯基

“If we build a machine with the intellectual capability of one human, within five years, its successor will be more intelligent than all of humanity combined. After one generation or two generations, they’d just ignore us. Just the way you ignore the ants in your backyard.” — James Barrat

“如果我们用一个人的智力能力制造一台机器，那么在五年之内，其继任者将比全人类的智慧更高。 一两代之后，他们只会无视我们。 就像您无视后院蚂蚁的方式一样。” —詹姆斯·巴拉特(James Barrat)

“Omohundro predicts self-aware, self-improving systems will develop four primary drives that are similar to human biological drives: efficiency, self-preservation, resource acquisition, and creativity. How these drives come into being is a particularly fascinating window into the nature of AI. AI doesn’t develop them because these are intrinsic qualities of rational agents. Instead, a sufficiently intelligent AI will develop these drives to avoid predictable problems in achieving its goals, which Omohundro calls vulnerabilities. The AI backs into these drives, because without them it would blunder from one resource-wasting mistake to another.” — James Barrat

“ Omohundro预测自我意识，自我完善的系统将开发出四个与人类生物驱动类似的主要驱动：效率，自我保护，资源获取和创造力。 这些驱动器如何形成是进入AI本质的一个特别迷人的窗口。 AI不会发展它们，因为它们是理性主体的内在品质。 取而代之的是，足够智能的AI将开发这些驱动器，以避免在实现其目标时出现可预测的问题，Omohundro称之为漏洞。 AI会支持这些驱动器，因为如果没有它们，它就会从一种浪费资源的错误错向另一种。 —詹姆斯·巴拉特(James Barrat)

Nick Bostrom的“超级智能：道路，危险，策略” (“Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies” by Nick Bostrom)

Source 来源

Nick Bostrom lays the foundation for understanding the future of humanity and intelligent life. If machines surpass human brains in general intelligence, this new superintelligence might become very powerful. As the fate of the monkeys depends more on humans than on the monkeys themselves, so the fate of our species will come to depend on the actions of the machine superintelligence. According to Bostrom, humans have one major advantage: Making the first move.

尼克·波斯特伦(Nick Bostrom)为了解人类和智慧生活的未来奠定了基础。 如果机器在通用智能方面超越了人类的大脑，那么这种新的超级智能可能会变得非常强大。 由于猴子的命运更多地取决于人类而不是猴子本身，因此我们物种的命运将取决于机器超智能的行为。 根据Bostrom的说法，人类有一个主要优势：迈出第一步。

Bostrom discusses ways to construct a seed artificial intelligence or engineer initial conditions to control the emergence and growth of superintelligence. Bostrom talks about a crazy array of topics such as controlled detonation, oracles, genies, singletons; boxing methods, tripwires, mind crime; humanity’s cosmic endowment; whole brain emulation; Malthusian economics and dystopian evolution; and biological cognitive enhancement.

Bostrom讨论了构建种子人工智能或设计初始条件以控制超智能的出现和增长的方法。 Bostrom谈论了一系列疯狂的话题，例如控制爆震，Oracle，精灵，单例。 拳击方法，绊网，心灵犯罪； 人类的宇宙end赋； 全脑仿真 马尔萨斯经济学和反乌托邦进化； 和生物认知增强。

Here are some of the key insights and arguments of this book:

这是本书的一些关键见解和论点：

• Artificial intelligence research will sooner or later produce a machine with general intelligence that matches the human brain.
  人工智能研究迟早会生产出具有与人脑相匹配的一般智能的机器。
• About half the world’s AI specialists expect human-level machine intelligence to be achieved by 2040, and 90% say it will arrive by 2075.
  全球约有一半的AI专家预计，到2040年将实现人类级机器智能，而90％的人表示将在2075年实现。
• Bostrom thinks human-level AI may lead to a far higher level of “superintelligence” very fast — and this will be either very good or very bad for humanity.
  博斯特伦认为，人类水平的AI可能很快导致更高水平的“超级智能”，这对人类来说将是非常好还是非常坏。

• Bostrom outlines many ways for AI to escape the genie bottle and take control of humanity. Each of these ways is convincing and terrifying. There would be far more intricate and intelligent structures than anything we can imagine today. The result would be: “A society of economic miracles and technological awesomeness, with nobody there to benefit: A Disneyland without children.”

  Bostrom概述了AI逃脱精灵瓶并控制人类的多种方法。 这些方式中的每一种都是令人信服和恐怖的。 将会有比我们今天想象的要复杂得多的智能结构。 结果将是： “一个经济奇迹和技术超凡的社会，没有人能受益：没有孩子的迪斯尼乐园。”

• Singularity will be the biggest challenge humanity ever faces. Transferring human values into computer code will not work. The problem is very complex and it does not have clear answers, but our humanity and civilization is at stake.
  奇异性将是人类有史以来最大的挑战。 将人类价值观转化为计算机代码将行不通。 这个问题非常复杂，没有明确的答案，但我们的人类与文明处于危险之中。

Some of the insightful and thought-provoking quotes in the book are as follows:

本书中一些有见地和发人深省的报价如下：

“Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an “intelligence explosion,” and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.” — Nick Bostrom

“让超智能机器定义为一种机器，它可以超越任何人的所有智力活动，无论多么聪明。 由于机器的设计是这些智力活动之一，因此，超智能机器可以设计出更好的机器。 毫无疑问，这将发生“智能爆炸”，而人类的智慧将被远远抛在后面。 因此，第一台超智能机器是人类有史以来需要做出的最后一项发明，前提是该机器要服从足以告诉我们如何对其进行控制。 —尼克·博斯特伦

“Before the prospect of an intelligence explosion, we humans are like small children playing with a bomb. Such is the mismatch between the power of our plaything and the immaturity of our conduct. Superintelligence is a challenge for which we are not ready now and will not be ready for a long time. We have little idea when the detonation will occur, though if we hold the device to our ear we can hear a faint ticking sound. For a child with an undetonated bomb in its hands, a sensible thing to do would be to put it down gently, quickly back out of the room, and contact the nearest adult. Yet what we have here is not one child but many, each with access to an independent trigger mechanism. The chances that we will all find the sense to put down the dangerous stuff seem almost negligible. Some little idiot is bound to press the ignite button just to see what happens.” — Nick Bostrom

“在出现情报爆炸之前，我们人类就像小孩在玩炸弹。 这就是我们玩物的力量与我们行为的不成熟之间的不匹配。 超级智能是一项挑战，我们现在还没有准备好，而且很长一段时间都不会准备好。 我们不知道何时会发生爆炸，但如果将设备放在耳朵旁，我们会听到微弱的滴答声。 对于手中拿着未爆炸炸弹的孩子，明智的选择是将其轻轻放下，Swift离开房间，并与最近的成年人联系。 然而，我们这里不是一个孩子，而是很多孩子，每个孩子都可以使用独立的触发机制。 我们所有人都会发现放下危险物品的感觉似乎几乎可以忽略不计。 一些白痴一定会按下点火按钮只是为了看看会发生什么。” —尼克·博斯特伦

“Far from being the “Human individuals and human organizations typically have preferences over resources that are not well represented by an “unbounded aggregative utility function”. A human will typically not wager all her capital for a fifty-fifty chance of doubling it. A state will typically not risk losing all its territory for a ten percent chance of a tenfold expansion. [T]he same need not hold for AIs. An AI might therefore be more likely to pursue a risky course of action that has some chance of giving it control of the world.”smartest possible biological species, we are probably better thought of as the stupidest possible biological species capable of starting a technological civilization — a niche we filled because we got there first, not because we are in any sense optimally adapted to it.” — Nick Bostrom

“远非“个人和人类组织通常会偏爱那些没有“无限的综合效用函数”代表的资源。 一个人通常不会以五十倍的机会下注全部资本。 一个州通常不会冒着将其领土扩大十倍的机会冒着失去全部领土的风险。 同样不需要AI。 因此，人工智能可能更有可能采取冒险行动，从而有机会控制世界。“可能的生物物种最好，我们可能被认为是能够启动技术文明的最愚蠢的生物物种。 —我们之所以填补这个细分市场，是因为我们首先到达了那里，而不是因为我们在任何方面都对其进行了最佳适应。 —尼克·博斯特伦

马克斯·泰格马克(Max Tegmark)的“生活3.0：在人工智能时代成为人类​​” (“Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence” by Max Tegmark)

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The rise of artificial intelligence has the potential to transform our future more than any other technology. Artificial intelligence is the future — but what will that future look like? Taking us to the heart of the latest thinking about artificial intelligence, Max Tegmark explores what is to come. Prof. Tegmark is an MIT professor who has done research on how to keep AI beneficial.

人工智能的兴起比任何其他技术都更有潜力改变我们的未来。 人工智能是未来-但是未来会是什么样？ Max Tegmark将我们带入了关于人工智能的最新思想的核心，探索了未来。 Tegmark教授是麻省理工学院的教授，他对如何保持AI有益进行了研究。

The book begins with a fascinating story of how the Omega team takes over the world using Prometheus, a super-intelligent AI. In a few years, Prometheus develops breakthrough systems and inventions, shares some of this wealth to improve human lives, and creates a new world order. It is a truly breath-taking story and it looks plausible in the near future.

本书以关于欧米茄团队如何使用超级智能AI普罗米修斯接管世界的迷人故事开始。 几年来，普罗米修斯(Prometheus)开发了突破性的系统和发明，分享了其中一部分财富，以改善人类生活，并创造了新的世界秩序。 这是一个令人叹为观止的故事，在不久的将来看起来似乎很合理。

Here are some of the critical points discussed in the book:

这是本书中讨论的一些关键点：

• AI is the most important conversation of our times. It is critical for us to understand the risks and benefits of AI and clearly define how the future will look like.
  人工智能是我们时代最重要的对话。 对于我们而言，了解AI的风险和收益并明确定义未来的前景至关重要。
• Life 1.0 is purely biological and it is coded in the DNA. It can only be changed through generations of evolution.
  生命1.0纯粹是生物学的，并且在DNA中编码。 它只能通过几代进化来改变。
• Life 2.0 is defined by human intelligence. Hardware (our bodies) cannot be designed or changed. However, software (algorithms, knowledge, language, behaviors, systems) can be designed.
  Life 2.0是由人类智慧定义的。 硬件(我们的身体)无法设计或更改。 但是，可以设计软件(算法，知识，语言，行为，系统)。
• Life 3.0 is life that can design both its hardware and software. It will be possible through super-intelligence and AI advancement.
  Life 3.0是可以设计其硬件和软件的生命。 通过超级智能和AI进步，这将成为可能。

Some of the insightful quotes in the book are as follows:

本书中一些有见地的引文如下：

“Let’s instead define life very broadly, simply as a process that can retain its complexity and replicate… In other words, we can think of life as a self-replicating information-processing system whose information (software) determines both its behavior and the blueprints for its hardware.”

“相反，我们将生命定义得很宽泛，只是将其定义为可以保留其复杂性并进行复制的过程。换句话说，我们可以将生命视为一种自我复制的信息处理系统，其信息(软件)可以决定其行为和蓝图。为其硬件。”

“If Life 3.0 is free to define its hardware/software and is limited only by the laws of physics, then it can potentially use existing resources billions or trillions of times better, and also expand to other solar systems and galaxies.”

“如果Life 3.0可以自由定义其硬件/软件，并且仅受物理定律的限制，那么它可以潜在地更好地利用数十亿或数万亿倍的现有资源，并且可以扩展到其他太阳系和星系。”

“The Matrix, Agent Smith (an AI) articulates this sentiment: “Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed and the only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You are a plague and we are the cure.”

“黑客帝国，特工史密斯(AI)明确表达了这一观点：“地球上的每个哺乳动物本能地与周围环境形成自然平衡，但人类却没有。 您移至某个区域，然后乘以乘以，直到消耗了所有自然资源，而生存的唯一方法就是扩散到另一个区域。 这个星球上还有另一个生物遵循相同的模式。 你知道这是什么吗？ 病毒。 人类是一种疾病，是这个星球的癌症。 你是瘟疫，我们是治愈方法。”

“We invented fire, repeatedly messed up, and then invented the fire extinguisher, fire exit, fire alarm and fire department.”

“我们发明了火，反复搞砸了，然后发明了灭火器，火出口，火警和消防部门。”

“I’m encouraging mine to go into professions that machines are currently bad at, and therefore seem unlikely to get automated in the near future. Recent forecasts for when various jobs will get taken over by machines identify several useful questions to ask about a career before deciding to educate oneself for it. For example: • Does it require interacting with people and using social intelligence? • Does it involve creativity and coming up with clever solutions? • Does it require working in an unpredictable environment?”

“我鼓励我从事目前机器不擅长的行业，因此在不久的将来似乎不太可能实现自动化。 最近关于机器将接替各种工作的预测表明，在决定对自己的职业进行自我教育之前，有几个有用的问题要问有关职业的问题。 例如：•是否需要与人互动并使用社交智能？ •它涉及创造力并提出聪明的解决方案吗？ •是否需要在不可预测的环境中工作？”

“Intellectual property rights are sometimes hailed as the mother of creativity and invention. However, Marshall Brain points out that many of the finest examples of human creativity — from scientific discoveries to creation of literature, art, music and design — were motivated not by a desire for profit but by other human emotions, such as curiosity, an urge to create, or the reward of peer appreciation. Money didn’t motivate Einstein to invent special relativity theory any more than it motivated Linus Torvalds to create the free Linux operating system. In contrast, many people today fail to realize their full creative potential because they need to devote time and energy to less creative activities just to earn a living. By freeing scientists, artists, inventors and designers from their chores and enabling them to create from genuine desire, Marshall Brain’s utopian society enjoys higher levels of innovation than today and correspondingly superior technology and standard of living.”

知识产权有时被誉为创造力和发明之母。 但是，马歇尔·布赖恩(Marshall Brain)指出，人类创造力的许多最好的例子-从科学发现到文学，艺术，音乐和设计的创作-都不是出于对利润的渴望，而是出于其他人类情感，例如好奇心，冲动创造，还是同行赞赏的奖励。 金钱并没有激发爱因斯坦发明狭义相对论，而只是激发了Linus Torvalds创建免费的Linux操作系统。 相比之下，当今许多人未能发挥出自己的全部创造潜力，因为他们需要花费时间和精力进行较少创造力的活动，以谋生。 通过使科学家，艺术家，发明家和设计师从繁琐的工作中解脱出来，并使他们能够从真正的愿望中进行创造，马歇尔·布莱恩的乌托邦社会享有比今天更高的创新水平，并拥有相应的卓越技术和生活水平。”

“Yet all these scenarios have two features in common: A fast takeoff: the transition from subhuman to vastly superhuman intelligence occurs in a matter of days, not decades. A unipolar outcome: the result is a single entity controlling Earth.”

“然而，所有这些情况都有两个共同点：快速起飞：从亚人类到巨大的超人类情报的转变发生在几天之内，而不是几十年。 单极性的结果：结果是控制地球的单一实体。”

“If you’re driving down a highway at fifty-five miles per hour and suddenly see a squirrel a few meters in front of you, it’s too late for you to do anything about it, because you’ve already run it over! …your consciousness lives in the past”

“如果您以每小时55英里的速度在高速公路上行驶，突然看到前方有几米的松鼠，那么您现在就做任何事情都为时已晚，因为您已经将它碾过了！ …你的意识活在过去”

“Your synapses store all your knowledge and skills as roughly 100 terabytes’ worth of information, while your DNA stores merely about a gigabyte, barely enough to store a single movie download.”

“您的突触将您所有的知识和技能存储为大约100 TB的信息，而您的DNA仅存储大约1 GB，仅够存储一次电影下载。”

“Your brain contains about as many neurons as there are stars in our Galaxy: in the ballpark of a hundred billion. On average, each of these neurons is connected to about a thousand others via junctions called synapses, and it’s the strengths of these roughly hundred trillion synapse connections that encode most of the information in your brain.”

“您的大脑包含的神经元与我们银河中存在的恒星一样多：在千亿的范围之内。 平均而言，这些神经元中的每一个都通过称为突触的连接点与大约一千个其他神经元连接，正是这些大约数百万亿个突触连接的强度编码了您大脑中的大多数信息。”

“Without technology, our human extinction is imminent in the cosmic context of tens of billions of years, rendering the entire drama of life in our Universe merely a brief and transient flash of beauty, passion and meaning in a near eternity of meaninglessness experienced by nobody.”

“没有技术，人类将在数百亿年的世界中灭绝，使我们整个宇宙的生命戏剧只是短暂而短暂的美丽，激情和意义的短暂闪光，几乎没有人经历过的毫无意义的永恒。”

“I’m sure there’ll be new new jobs for horses that we haven’t yet imagined. That’s what’s always happened before, like with the invention of the wheel and the plow.” Alas, those not-yet-imagined new jobs for horses never arrived. No-longer-needed horses were slaughtered and not replaced, causing the U.S. equine population to collapse from about 26 million in 1915 to about 3 million in 1960. As mechanical muscles made horses redundant, will mechanical minds do the same to humans?”

“我敢肯定，我们还没有想到会有新的马匹新工作。 这就是以前经常发生的事情，就像车轮和犁的发明一样。” las，那些尚未想到的马新工作从未到来。 不再需要的马就被屠杀了，没有被替换，这导致美国马匹的数量从1915年的约2600万下降到1960年的约300万。由于机械肌肉使马多余，机械头脑对人类也一样吗？”

“So who’s right: those who say automated jobs will be replaced by better ones or those who say most humans will end up unemployable? If AI progress continues unabated, then both sides might be right: one in the short term and the other in the long term. But although people often discuss the disappearance of jobs with doom-and-gloom connotations, it doesn’t have to be a bad thing! Luddites obsessed about particular jobs, neglecting the possibility that other jobs might provide the same social value. Analogously, perhaps those who obsess about jobs today are being too narrow-minded: we want jobs because they can provide us with income and purpose, but given the opulence of resources produced by machines, it should be possible to find alternative ways of providing both the income and the purpose without jobs. Something similar ended up happening in the equine story, which didn’t end with all horses going extinct. Instead, the number of horses has more than tripled since 1960, as they were protected by an equine social-welfare system of sorts: even though they couldn’t pay their own bills, people decided to take care of horses, keeping them around for fun, sport and companionship. Can we similarly take care of our fellow humans in need?”

“那么谁是对的：那些说自动工作将被更好的工作所取代，或者那些说大多数人最终将失业的人呢？ 如果人工智能的进展持续下去，那么双方可能都是正确的：一个是短期的，而另一个是长期的。 但是，尽管人们经常用厄运和悲观色彩来讨论工作的消失，但这并不一定是一件坏事！ 卢迪特痴迷于特定的工作，而忽略了其他工作可能提供相同的社会价值的可能性。 类似地，也许那些今天痴迷于工作的人思维太狭narrow：我们想要工作是因为它们可以为我们提供收入和目标，但是鉴于机器生产的资源的丰富性，应该有可能找到其他方式来提供这两种工作没有工作的收入和目的。 类似的事情最终发生在马的故事中，但并没有随着所有马匹的灭绝而终结。 取而代之的是，自1960年以来，马匹的数量已增加了两倍多，因为它们受到各种马类社会福利制度的保护：即使他们自己无法负担账单，人们还是决定照顾马匹，将马匹留在附近乐趣，运动和陪伴。 我们是否可以同样照顾需要帮助的人类？”

“Elon Musk argued that what we need right now from governments isn’t oversight but insight: specifically, technically capable people in government positions who can monitor AI’s progress and steer it if warranted down the road.”

“埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)辩称，我们现在从政府那里需要的不是监督，而是洞察力：特别是，具有政府职位的技术能力强的人可以监视AI的进度，并在有需要的情况下指导AI的发展。”

那么我们该怎么办？ (So what do we do?)

We live in interesting and non-linear times. Everything will become super-accelerated: Technology, economics, innovation, learning, space exploration, culture, politics, and global affairs. The Internet will also shift into something that we cannot grasp now —perhaps a metaverse. Evolution will move at a speed that will blow our minds and churn our stomachs.

我们生活在有趣且非线性的时代。 一切都会超级加速：技术，经济学，创新，学习，太空探索，文化，政治和全球事务。 互联网也将转变为我们现在无法掌握的东西，也许是一个超宇宙。 进化将以惊人的速度运转，搅动我们的胃。

Millions of jobs will be eliminated or completely transformed in the next decade. We will have to upgrade our skills and learn how to work with machines, robots, and algorithms — or we will risk losing our jobs. Some experts warn of ‘job mortgages’ where we will need to get a mortgage to upgrade our skills and knowledge. We will need to adapt to this new scary world.

在未来十年中，数百万个工作岗位将被淘汰或完全改变。 我们将必须提升技能并学习如何使用机器，机器人和算法-否则我们将有失去工作的风险。 一些专家警告“工作抵押”，我们将需要抵押来提升我们的技能和知识。 我们将需要适应这个新的可怕世界。

In a world of exponential and disruptive changes, we need to learn, re-invent, and disrupt ourselves every day. We need to be as open to learning, adaptation, and change as babies. We need to re-invent ourselves every day. If we stop learning and being curious, it will be too late for us to react to sudden tectonic shifts around us. When an exponential change happens, our time to react will be minimal. If we cannot adapt and learn, we might just fade into insignificance.

在一个指数式和破坏性变化的世界中，我们需要每天学习，重新发明和破坏自己。 我们需要像婴儿一样对学习，适应和改变持开放态度。 我们需要每天重新发明自己。 如果我们停止学习并保持好奇心，对我们周围的突然构造变化做出React将为时已晚。 当发生指数变化时，我们做出React的时间将最少。 如果我们不能适应和学习，我们可能会变得微不足道。

Image created by Author 图片由作者创建

We have two choices ahead of us: Freaking out or bewilderment. To advance in the path of bewilderment, we have to constantly learn, be open to change, and disrupt ourselves. We need to find our own strengths, meanings, and voice in the middle of all the chaos and noise surrounding us.

我们前面有两个选择：吓坏了或迷惑不解。 为了在迷茫的道路上前进，我们必须不断学习，开放变化，并破坏自己。 我们需要在周围所有混乱和喧嚣中找到自己的优势，含义和声音。

We do not know about tomorrow’s jobs, workplaces, and organizations. The only thing we can be sure about is the necessity of self-making: We have to constantly learn, be open to change, and disrupt ourselves. We need new ways of thinking, learning, creating, and innovating. In any case, we need to keep learning and experimenting with AI technologies. We need to increase our literacy and depth of understanding of artificial intelligence. Curiosity is our only option to go forward. Curiosity will give us leverage because we can then capitalize on what is novel, interesting, surprising, meaningful, and beautiful. In these disruptive times, the smartest action you can take is to disrupt and reinvent yourself. Ask yourself the following questions:

我们不知道明天的工作，工作场所和组织。 我们唯一可以确定的是自我创造的必要性：我们必须不断学习，对变化持开放态度，并破坏自己。 我们需要新的思维方式，学习方式，创造方式和创新方式。 无论如何，我们需要继续学习和尝试AI技术。 我们需要提高对人工智能的素养和理解深度。 好奇心是我们前进的唯一选择。 好奇心会给我们带来影响，因为我们可以利用新颖，有趣，令人惊讶，有意义和美丽的事物。 在这些动荡的时代，您可以采取的最明智的行动就是破坏并重塑自己。 问问自己以下问题：

• What are the skills that only you can do? Skills that cannot be automated or replicated or broken down into pieces? Skills that machines, robots, computers, or algorithms cannot replicate?
  只有您才能做到的技能是什么？ 无法自动化或复制或分解成碎片的技能？ 机器，机器人，计算机或算法无法复制的技能？
• How can you best nurture your human qualities? Your human qualities, such as common sense, creativity, empathy, and emotional intelligence will be more important than ever — as these are not manifested in machines. At least not yet. Therefore, in the long run, your uniquely human qualities and competencies will become more valuable than ever.
  您如何最好地培养人的素质？ 您的人类素质，例如常识，创造力，同情心和情商，将比以往任何时候都更加重要-因为这些在机器中没有体现出来。 至少还没有。 因此，从长远来看，您独特的人文素质和能力将比以往任何时候都更有价值。
• How can you compound yourself through learning, changing, and improving every day?
  您如何通过每天的学习，改变和改善而变得更加自我？
• How can you invest in yourself and your asset creation for the long term?
  从长远来看，您如何投资自己和资产创造？
• Are you learning new and exciting things every day?
  您每天都在学习新鲜有趣的事情吗？
• How can you ensure you are learning, pushing yourself, and your brain every day?
  您如何确保自己每天都在学习，推动自己和大脑？

法赫里·卡拉卡斯(Fahri Karakas)是Self-making Studio的作者。 您可以在这里探索更多。 (Fahri Karakas is the author of Self-making Studio. You can explore more here.)

翻译自: https://medium.com/predict/here-are-my-top-3-books-on-artificial-intelligence-1972c66304bf

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