2022-06-23 Don’t Fool Yourself

Most of us overestimate our intelligence and we underestimate complexity. These problems can get us into a lot of trouble. These are flaws that we need to be aware of and remind ourselves of often. It’s really easy to be wrong. Even about things we’re sure of.

You’re as likely to mislead yourself as anyone else. You will tell yourself a lot of things that aren’t true. A lot of what you believe is conjecture and wishful thinking. At some point in your life, much of what you believe will be challenged.

This is a mathematical universe, but we don’t always know what the numbers are. The more variables there are, the more complex and more difficult it is to make accurate predictions. And there’s almost always more variables than we think there are.

Reality won’t agree with you on everything. Seek to understand the way things are, not the way you want them to be. Look for the missing pieces of the equation, instead of always trying to reconfirm the numbers you already have.

It’s important to have a vision and to have faith in that vision. But we should also remain flexible. We shouldn’t expect to have a perfectly clear view. We should expect that reality is going to reveal some holes in our thinking.