3. Forecasting

1. Four Basic Types:

1)Qualitative methods (e.g., Delphi method, Consumer surveys, Outside opinion)

2)Time series analysis (e.g., simple smoothing methods, Add Trendline)

3)Classification methods (e.g., Discriminant Analysis)

4)Causal methods (e.g., Econometric models)

2. Managerial Forecasting Methods:

Moving Averages:

1)Simple moving average:

Take the average of the demand on recent data and use that as the forecast for future demand

2)Weighted moving average(including Exponential smoothing)

 allows unequal weights for prior time periods

3)Simple Exponential Smoothing