Chapter nine

it is easier to buy and sell that fry an egg.

Fooled by numbers

  Placebo investors

  Nobody has to be competent

  Regression to the mean

    Ergo divots

Life is coincidental

    The mysterious letter

    An interrupted tennis game

    Reverse surviors

      The birthday paradox

      It's a small world

      Data mining ,statistics,and      charlatan ism

    The best book I have ever read

      The back tester

      A more unsettling extension

    The earnings season:fooled by the results

Comparative luck

    Cancer cures

    Professor person goes to Monte Carlo :randomness does not look randomness!

The dog that did not bark:on bias  in scientific knowledge

I have no conclusion

Outside of this very specialized bookmaker-style profession,to be honest,I am unable to answer the question of who's lucky or unlucky.

I can tell that person A seems less lucky than person B,but the confidence in such konwledge can be so weak as to be meanningless .

I prefer to remain a skeptic.

People frequently misinterpret my opinion .

I never said that every rich man is an idiot and every unsuccessful person unlucky,only that in absence of much additional information it is preferable to reserve one's judgement.

It is safer.